INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2010 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 76 | 74 | 79 | 85 | 75 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 82.7 | 85 | 91.4 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b |
3.2 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 3.7 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 579 | 661 | 652 | 685 | 729 | 757 | 793 | 738 | 721 | 687 | 664 | 634 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.85 | 2.93 | 2.87 | 2.86 | 3.24 | 3.36 | 3.20 | 3.09 | 3.03 | 2.85 | 2.89 | 3.02 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.07 | 4.01 | 3.89 | 3.87 | 4.06 | 4.10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 3.96 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2010 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 76 | 78 | 77 | 86.5 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 629 | 721 | 753 | 667 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.87 | 3.16 | 3.10 | 2.92 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.86 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 3.97 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland