INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2016 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 30.7 | 32.5 | 38.5 | 41.5 | 46.9 | 48.3 | 45.1 | 45.8 | 46.7 | 49.7 | 45.1 | 53.6 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 13.2 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 10.6 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 6.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.9 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 9.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.0 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 1050 | 991 | 939 | 973 | 995 | 979 | 970 | 958 | 942 | 912 | 943 | 862 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.06 | 3.96 | 3.87 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 3.98 | 3.84 | 3.86 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 4.20 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.41 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 4.31 | 4.41 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.31 | 4.39 | 4.44 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2016 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 33.9 | 45.6 | 45.9 | 49.3 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 11.7 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 5.8 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 8.0 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 8.0 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 998 | 982 | 957 | 906 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.96 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 4.06 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.36 | 4.37 | 4.34 | 4.38 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland