INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2017 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 54.7 | 55.1 | 51.6 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 51.6 | 56.0 | 57.4 | 62.6 | 64.2 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 11.1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b |
5.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b |
2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.3 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 855 | 915 | 1001 | 1008 | 1017 | 988 | 920 | 903 | 910 | 925 | 875 | 870 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.11 | 4.05 | 4.02 | 3.96 | 3.80 | 3.75 | 3.68 | 3.61 | 3.58 | 3.63 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.29 | 4.24 | 4.20 | 4.21 | 4.24 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 4.23 | 4.20 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2017 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 53.7 | 49.6 | 52.1 | 61.3 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 12.1 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 11.5 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 5.3 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 930 | 1003 | 911 | 890 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.06 | 3.83 | 3.63 | 3.60 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.32 | 4.22 | 4.26 | 4.23 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland