INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 54.8 | 62.2 | 65.6 | 64.7 | 68.7 | 73.0 | 75.0 | 70.8 | 74.6 | 83.7 | 81.4 | 74.1 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 5.9 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 0.6 |
1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
2.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential |
$/b | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 889 | 1011 | 1232 | 1469 | 1492 | 1458 | 1356 | 1321 | 1267 | 1186 | 1274 | 1316 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.86 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.96 | 4.08 | 4.08 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.54 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 4.57 | 4.53 | 4.50 | 4.56 | 4.57 | 4.57 | 4.59 | 4.65 | 4.62 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2021 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 61.1 | 69.0 | 73.5 | 79.8 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | 7.1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.5 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 1.5 | 2.0 |
2.3 | 1.7 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 2.0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 1044 | 1473 | 1318 | 1253 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.78 | 3.76 | 3.87 | 4.04 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 4.55 | 4.53 | 4.57 | 4.62 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland