INVESTOR RELATIONS
Macro data
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| Macroeconomic data – average: 2011 | unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 96.5 | 103.8 | 114.5 | 123.5 | 114.4 | 114 | 116.9 | 110.4 | 113.1 | 109.4 | 110.7 | 107.8 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 726 | 757 | 772 | 765 | 821 | 807 | 678 | 675 | 639 | 641 | 614 | 573 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.92 | 2.88 | 2.87 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.87 | 3.15 | 3.18 | 3.27 | 3.40 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.89 | 3.93 | 4.02 | 3.97 | 3.94 | 3.97 | 3.99 | 4.12 | 4.34 | 4.36 | 4.43 | 4.48 |
| Macroeconomic data – average: 2011 | unit | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil price | $/b | 105.4 | 117 | 113.4 | 109.4 |
| Model downstream margin (1) | $/b | - | - | - | - |
| Model refining margin (2) | $/b | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Brent/URAL differential (3) | $/b | 2.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential | $/b | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Model petrochemical margin (4) | EUR/t | 751 | 795 | 663 | 609 |
| USD / PLN (5) | PLN | 2.88 | 2.75 | 2.94 | 3.28 |
| EUR / PLN (5) | PLN | 3.95 | 3.96 | 4.15 | 4.42 |
1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)
2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.
3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.
5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland