INVESTOR RELATIONS

Macro data

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Macroeconomic data – average: 2018 unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Brent crude oil price $/b 69.2 65.2 65.9 71.8 76.9 74.3 74.3 72.6 78.9 81.2 64.7 57.4
Model downstream margin (1) $/b 9.9 12.0 12.4 12.7 12.0 12.4 13.1 14.3 10.8 11.2 14.0 10.7
Model refining margin (2) $/b 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.4 6.1 8.3 4.0 2.9 6.9 4.7
Brent/URAL differential (3) $/b
0.6 1.9
2.4 3.0 2.1
1.6 1.9 1.1
1.1 2.2 0.2 0.1
Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential $/b 4.4 6.0 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 8.0 9.4 5.1 5.1 7.1 4.8
Model petrochemical margin (4) EUR/t 872 925 908 864 809 878 884 875 851 847 970 937
USD / PLN (5) PLN 3.41 3.37 3.41 3.42 3.62 3.69 3.71 3.71 3.69 3.75 3.79 3.77
EUR / PLN (5) PLN 4.16 4.17 4.21 4.19 4.28 4.30 4.33 4.29 4.30 4.31 4.30 4.29

 

Macroeconomic data – average: 2018 unit 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Brent crude oil price $/b 66.8 74.4 75.2 68.8
Model downstream margin (1) $/b 11.4 12.4 12.8 12.1
Model refining margin (2) $/b 4.0 5.2 6.3 4.8
Brent/URAL differential (3) $/b
1.6
2.2
1.3
1.0
Model refining margin + Brent/URAL differential $/b 5.6 7.4 7.6 5.8
Model petrochemical margin (4) EUR/t 902 853 870 921
USD / PLN (5) PLN 3.40 3.58 3.70 3.77
EUR / PLN (5) PLN 4.18 4.26 4.30 4.30

 

1) Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas)

2) Model refining margin = revenues (93,5% Products = 36% Gasoline + 43% Diesel + 14,5% HHO) - costs (100% input = crude oil and other raw materials). Total input calculated acc. to Brent crude quotations. Spot market quotations.

3) Spread Ural Rdam vs fwd Brent Dtd = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)

4) Model petrochemical margin = revenues (98% Products = 44% HDPE + 7% LDPE + 35% PP Homo + 12% PP Copo) - costs (100% input = 75% Naphtha + 25% LS VGO). Contract market quotations.

5) Average foreign exchange rates according to the National Bank of Poland